5 min read

The Impact of Technical Debt on Future Estimations

Technical debt is a concept that’s frequently discussed but often underestimated in its long-term impact. It refers to the shortcuts, quick fixes, or suboptimal code that developers implement to meet deadlines or deliver features faster. While these shortcuts might seem harmless in the short term, they come with a cost that accumulates over time, just like financial debt. Eventually, this debt needs to be paid off, either through refactoring, rewriting, or dealing with unexpected issues that arise because of it. But one of the most significant impacts of technical debt is on future project estimations.

In this blog post, we’ll explore how technical debt affects future estimations, leading to inaccurate timelines, higher costs, and project delays. We’ll also discuss how Scopilot.ai can help teams manage technical debt by providing more accurate scoping, project definition, and estimation that takes existing debt into account.

What is Technical Debt?

Technical debt occurs when development teams make trade-offs that prioritize speed over long-term quality. This could be taking shortcuts in code, delaying proper documentation, skipping tests, or implementing a feature in a less-than-ideal way to save time. While technical debt isn’t always bad—sometimes it’s necessary to deliver a product quickly—it can pile up over time and become a burden.

How Technical Debt Accumulates

Technical debt tends to accumulate in three primary ways:

  1. Quick Fixes and Workarounds: Sometimes, teams are under pressure to deliver features fast. To meet tight deadlines, they might use quick fixes or workarounds that solve the immediate problem but introduce hidden complexities or fragile code.
  2. Poor Code Quality: When teams skip best practices like code reviews, testing, or refactoring, the result is often low-quality code. Poorly structured code makes future changes harder and more time-consuming.
  3. Outdated Technology and Legacy Systems: As technology evolves, older code can become harder to maintain. Legacy systems that weren’t designed to handle modern requirements contribute to technical debt, making future enhancements more difficult.

The Impact of Technical Debt on Future Estimations

Technical debt directly impacts the accuracy of future project estimates. Here’s how:

  1. Increased Complexity Leads to Inaccurate Estimates

When technical debt accumulates, it makes the codebase more complex and harder to understand. Developers spend more time figuring out how things work, which slows down progress. This hidden complexity is often underestimated when scoping new projects, leading to unrealistic timelines.

For example, if a feature depends on a part of the system that’s heavily indebted with poor-quality code, what should be a simple update might require extensive work to refactor, test, and stabilize.

  1. Unforeseen Issues and Rework

Technical debt often leads to unexpected bugs and issues. These issues arise because the shortcuts taken earlier create ripple effects in the system. Estimations that don’t account for these hidden problems are almost always overly optimistic. Teams end up spending more time fixing issues than originally planned, causing delays and cost overruns.

This is especially problematic when teams are working on enhancements or new features. If technical debt isn’t addressed first, new work often leads to regressions, requiring rework and unplanned fixes.

  1. Inconsistent Development Velocity

Technical debt affects the pace at which teams can deliver new features. As debt grows, development velocity decreases because more time is spent maintaining and patching up the code. This slowdown makes it difficult to predict how long future tasks will take, leading to fluctuating estimations and unreliable sprint planning.

For example, early in a project, a team may deliver features quickly because the codebase is clean and easy to work with. However, as technical debt accumulates, the same team might struggle to maintain that pace, leading to missed deadlines and rushed work that adds even more debt.

  1. Difficulty in Scaling and Adding New Features

A heavily indebted codebase is rigid and hard to extend. Adding new features often requires navigating through a maze of interdependent components, poorly written code, and missing documentation. This additional work is rarely accounted for in initial estimates, causing significant overruns in both time and budget.

For instance, adding a simple reporting feature to an existing system might seem straightforward. However, if the underlying data structure is messy due to accumulated debt, the team may need to spend weeks cleaning it up before they can even start building the new feature.

  1. Increased Maintenance Costs

Technical debt doesn’t just affect development; it also impacts ongoing maintenance. Fixing bugs, handling performance issues, and dealing with security vulnerabilities become more expensive as debt grows. These additional costs need to be factored into future estimates, yet they’re often overlooked until they start causing real problems.

For long-term projects or products that require regular updates, underestimating the impact of technical debt on maintenance can lead to recurring delays and escalating costs.

How to Address Technical Debt in Estimations

Given the significant impact of technical debt on project estimates, it’s crucial to address it proactively. Here are a few strategies:

  1. Factor in Refactoring and Cleanup Time

When planning new features, include time for refactoring existing code and addressing technical debt. While it might seem like an overhead, this investment pays off by making future development smoother and estimates more reliable.

  1. Prioritize Debt Reduction

Not all technical debt is equal. Identify the areas of the codebase that are most problematic and prioritize fixing them. By targeting high-impact areas, you can reduce the overall burden of debt and improve future estimates.

  1. Use Automated Tools for Better Visibility

Automated tools can help assess the level of technical debt in your codebase. Tools like SonarQube provide metrics on code quality, identifying areas that need improvement. Having this data allows you to make more informed decisions during project scoping and estimation.

  1. Break Down Projects into Smaller Increments

Large projects are more prone to underestimating technical debt because the debt accumulates over time. Breaking down work into smaller, manageable increments helps teams identify and address debt before it spirals out of control.

  1. Regularly Review and Update Estimates

As projects progress, regularly review estimates to account for any new debt that has been introduced. By staying aware of the current state of the codebase, you can adjust timelines and expectations accordingly.

How Scopilot.ai Can Help

Scopilot.ai is designed to assist with accurate project scoping and estimation, even when dealing with technical debt. Here’s how it can help:

  • Automated Project Scoping and Definition: Scopilot.ai generates detailed software modules, user stories, and technical requirements, taking into account potential areas of technical debt.
  • Accurate Time and Effort Estimations: The platform provides realistic estimates by factoring in code complexity and existing technical debt, helping you plan more effectively.
  • Clarification and Documentation: Scopilot.ai produces clear, comprehensive documentation that includes technical details, clarification questions, and dependencies, ensuring that nothing is overlooked during the estimation process.

Conclusion

Technical debt has a significant impact on future estimations. As it accumulates, it makes projects more complex, slows down development, and leads to inaccurate timelines and cost overruns. By breaking down projects, addressing debt early, and using tools like Scopilot.ai, teams can create more reliable estimates, reduce unexpected surprises, and keep projects on track.

Managing technical debt proactively is essential for delivering quality software on time and within budget. By considering debt in every project estimate, you set your team up for success, enabling consistent progress and smoother project execution over the long term.