When it comes to estimating how long something will take or how much effort it will require, many of us tend to be overly optimistic. This tendency to underestimate is common, especially in the world of software development, where projects often end up taking more time and resources than initially expected. But why do we consistently make these underestimates? The answer lies in the psychology behind estimation.
Why We Tend to Underestimate
- Optimism Bias
One of the main reasons we underestimate is something called optimism bias. This is the natural human tendency to believe that things will go better for us than they actually do. We assume that tasks will go smoothly, that we won’t run into any major issues, and that everything will take less time than it realistically will. Optimism bias makes us focus on best-case scenarios rather than considering potential obstacles. - The Planning Fallacy
The planning fallacy is closely related to optimism bias. It’s a psychological phenomenon where people underestimate the time it will take to complete a task, even if they’ve done similar tasks before and know they took longer. We often forget to consider all the little things that can add up, like interruptions, mistakes, or tasks taking longer than expected. This leads us to set unrealistic deadlines. - Anchoring
Anchoring is another psychological factor that affects our estimates. This happens when we base our estimates on an initial piece of information, even if that information is not accurate or relevant. For example, if someone suggests that a task should take a day, we might anchor to that estimate, even if the task is more complex and should realistically take a week. - Scope Creep
Scope creep refers to the gradual expansion of a project’s requirements. Even if we start with a reasonable estimate, as more features and tasks are added, the project grows beyond the original scope. This can cause significant delays, but because the additions happen gradually, we often don’t adjust our estimates accordingly. - Hindsight Bias
After completing a project, we might look back and think that the time it took was obvious. This is known as hindsight bias. It makes us believe that our past experiences should have made it clear how long things would take, but in reality, we tend to forget about the unforeseen issues that arose along the way. This bias can prevent us from learning from past mistakes and improving our future estimates. - Desire to Please
Sometimes, we underestimate because we want to make others happy. Whether it’s a client, a manager, or a team member, we might give a shorter estimate because we think that’s what they want to hear. We hope that by giving a positive estimate, we’ll be seen as capable and efficient. Unfortunately, this can lead to disappointment when the project takes longer than expected.
How to Combat Underestimation
Understanding why we tend to underestimate is the first step in overcoming this challenge. Here are some practical steps to improve the accuracy of your estimates:
- Break Down Tasks
Breaking down large tasks into smaller, more manageable parts can help you get a better sense of how long each part will take. When you estimate each smaller task, you’re less likely to overlook important details, leading to a more accurate overall estimate. - Learn from Past Projects
Look back at similar projects you’ve worked on and see how long they took compared to your initial estimates. What went well? What took longer than expected? Use this information to inform your future estimates. The more you can learn from your past, the better your future estimates will be. - Use Tools to Help
Tools like Scopilot.ai can help improve the accuracy of your estimates. Scopilot.ai assists with product scoping, product definition, and software estimation by generating detailed definitions of software modules, features, user stories, and clarification questions. It can even create definitions for required user screens and database schemas. With a clear understanding of the project scope, you can make more informed estimates. - Account for the Unexpected
Always include some buffer time in your estimates. This is crucial for accounting for unexpected issues like bugs, changes in requirements, or other delays. Adding a buffer can prevent you from missing deadlines and help you stay on track even when things don’t go exactly as planned. - Involve the Whole Team
Estimation shouldn’t be a solo task. Involve your whole team in the process, as different perspectives can help identify potential challenges that one person might miss. Team input can also help to create a more realistic and balanced estimate. - Regularly Review and Adjust
As a project progresses, regularly review your estimates. If tasks are taking longer than expected, adjust your remaining estimates accordingly. This ongoing review helps you stay on top of the project and avoid falling too far behind. - Communicate Clearly with Stakeholders
Clear communication with clients and other stakeholders is essential. Be upfront about the challenges of estimation and the potential for delays. Tools like Scopilot.ai allow you to share the project scope with clients, especially if you’re working in a software agency. This helps ensure everyone has the same understanding of the project and reduces the risk of scope creep or miscommunication.
The Role of Scopilot.ai in Improving Estimates
Scopilot.ai is a powerful tool that can make the estimation process easier and more accurate. By helping with product scoping, product definition, and software estimation, Scopilot.ai provides a clear picture of what the project entails right from the start. This clarity can significantly reduce the tendency to underestimate by ensuring that all aspects of the project are considered.
Additionally, Scopilot.ai can generate detailed definitions of software modules, features, user stories, and even user screens and database schemas. This level of detail helps you and your team understand the full scope of the project, leading to more realistic estimates. And if you’re part of a software agency, Scopilot.ai allows you to share the project with clients, helping to clarify the scope and avoid misunderstandings that can lead to underestimation.
Conclusion
Underestimation is a common challenge in software development, but by understanding the psychological factors that contribute to it, you can take steps to improve your estimates. By breaking down tasks, learning from past projects, using tools like Scopilot.ai, and regularly reviewing and adjusting your estimates, you can reduce the risk of underestimation and deliver projects on time and within budget.
Remember, while it’s natural to want to be optimistic, realistic estimates are crucial for successful project management. By being aware of the psychological traps that lead to underestimation, you can make more accurate predictions and set yourself and your team up for success.